He knew he was wrong →

If a cadet did something better than normal, his next attempt at the task would in all likelihood not be as good, whether or not he was praised. In the same way, if he performed unusually badly, his next attempt would probably be better, whether or not he was criticised. The trainer was attaching a causal interpretation to the fluctuations of a random process; simple regression to the mean.

(thanks Micah)

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